Suicidio e intoxicación etílica en Bielorrusia entre 1970 y 2005 Suicide and alcohol poisoning in Belarus between 1970 and 2005

Autores/as

  • Yu. E. Razvodovsky Grodno State Medical University, Belarus. Enviar correspondencia a/Correspondence to: Grodno State Medical University, Belarus. tel.: +375 0152 70 18 84, fax: +375 0152 43 53 41,

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20882/adicciones.307

Palabras clave:

suicidio, borrachera, análisis de series temporales ARIMA, Bielorrusia, binge drinking, beber concentrado suicide, fatal alcohol poisoning, ARIMA time series analysis, Belarus, binge drinking

Resumen

Antecedentes: La asociación entre alcohol y suicidio está bien documentada. El sólido cuerpo de investigaciones y evidencias empíricas sugiere que el modelo peligroso de consumo de alcohol (binge drinking o beber concentrado de alcohol) conduce a una embriaguez más rápida y profunda, aumentando la propensión al suicidio relacionado con el alcohol. Objetivo: Calcular el efecto a nivel agregado del beber concentrado en la tasa de suicidios. Método: Las tendencias de la tasa de suicidios e intoxicación etílica fatal (en cuanto representación del beber concentrado) desde 1970 hasta 2005 en Bielorrusia se estudiaron utilizando análisis ARIMA (promedio autorregresivo integrado de media móvil) para estimar la relación bivariada entre dos series temporales. Resultados: Los resultados del análisis de las series temporales indican una estrecha relación entre el suicidio y la tasa de intoxicación etílica fatal a nivel agregado. Conclusión: Este estudio sostiene la hipótesis de que el suicidio y el alcohol guardan estrecha relación en una cultura con el modelo predominante de consumo de alcohol orientado a la embriaguez y aporta al creciente cuerpo de evidencias la confirmación de que una sustancial proporción de suicidios registrados en Bielorrusia se debe al efecto agudo del beber concentrado.
Background: The association between alcohol and suicide is well documented. The solid body of research and empirical evidence suggests that hazardous pattern of alcohol consumption (binge drinking) lead to quicker and deeper intoxication, increasing the propensity for alcohol-related suicide. Purpose: To estimate the aggregate level effect of binge drinking on suicide rate. Method: Trends in suicide and fatal alcohol poisoning rate (as a proxy for binge drinking) from 1970 to 2005 in Belarus were analyzed employing ARIMA analysis in order to assess bivariate relationship between two time series. Results: The results of time series analysis suggests close relationship between suicide and fatal alcohol poisoning rate at aggregate level. Conclusion: This study supports the hypothesis that suicide and alcohol closely connected in culture with prevailing intoxication-oriented drinking patterns and adds to the growing body of evidence that a substantial proportion of suicide in Belarus is due to acute effect of binge drinking.

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Publicado

2007-09-01

Número

Vol. 19 Núm. 3 (2007)

Sección

Originales