Ventas de bebidas alcohólicas y mortalidad violenta en Rusia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20882/adicciones.172Palabras clave:
venta de alcohol, mortalidad violenta, análisis de series temporales ARIMA, RusiaResumen
Introducción: La elevada mortalidad debido a la violencia en Rusia en las últimas décadas ha atraído un interés considerable. Existe evidencia de que el consumo intensivo (binge drinking) de alcohol es un factor potencialmente importante para explicar esta mortalidad. Presuponemos que un alto consumo de vodka junto con un patrón de consumo intensivo da lugar a una estrecha relación entre las ventas de vodka y las tasas de mortalidad violenta en Rusia. Objetivos y métodos: Para probar esta hipótesis, se analizaron a través de series temporales ARIMA las tendencias en las ventas de alcohol per cápita y tasas de mortalidad por causas externas en Rusia entre 1980 y 2005. Resultados: Los resultados del análisis indican que las tasas de mortalidad por violencia tienden a ser más sensible a los cambios en las ventas de vodka per cápita que a cambio en el nivel total de las ventas de alcohol. El análisis sugiere que un aumento de 1 litro en las ventas de vodka per cápita se traduciría en un aumento del 5% en la tasa de mortalidad por violencia, un 11,3% de los accidentes y lesiones, un 9,2% en la tasa de suicidio, un 12,5% en tasa de homicidios y un aumento del 21,9% en la tasa de intoxicación etílica fatal. Conclusión: Los resultados de este estudio proporcionan apoyo a la hipótesis de que el alcohol jugó un papel crucial en la fluctuación de la tasa de mortalidad violenta en Rusia en las últimas décadas. Asumiendo que beber vodka está normalmente asociado con episodios de intoxicación, estos resultados proporcionan evidencia adicional de que el binge drinking es un determinante importante de la crisis de mortalidad violenta en Rusia.Citas
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