Análisis de series temporales de nivel agregado sobre la asociación entre el consumo de alcohol y la mortalidad cardiovascular

Yury E. Razvodovsky

Resumen


Las pruebas epidemiológicas constatan la existencia de una relación en forma de J o U entre el nivel de consumo de alcohol y el índice de mortalidad cardiovascular (CDV) con un riesgo elevado para abstemios y bebedores de grandes cantidades de alcohol. El papel del modelo de consumo de alcohol en la asociación entre mortalidad cardiovascular y alcohol es, en la actualidad, una cuestión muy relevante. Sabemos que el consumo esporádico abusivo aumenta de forma lineal el riesgo de CDV. Se ha centrado bastante la atención en el efecto de una bebida específica en el índice de mortalidad cardiovascular. Parece difícil generalizar sobre el efecto de una bebida alcohólica determinada en el índice de mortalidad cardiovascular en la población. Objetivo: Evaluar el efecto de una bebida específica de alcohol en el índice de mortalidad CDV. Método: En Belarús, se analizaron las tendencias de los diferentes tipos de índice de mortalidad CDV (isquemias coronarias, infartos de miocardio e hipertensión) entre 1970 y 1999 en relación con las tendencias en el nivel de consumo per cápita de distintas bebidas alcohólicas, empleando análisis de series temporales, de factores y de grupos. Resultados: Los análisis demostraron el efecto positivo y estadísticamente significativo de los cambios en el consumo per cápita de bebidas de alto contenido alcohólico sobre el índice de mortalidad cardiovascular. Los análisis indican que un aumento del 1% en el consumo de bebidas de alta graduación supone un aumento del 0,45% en el índice de mortalidad por infarto de miocardio y del 0,4% en el índice de mortalidad por hipertensión. Conclusión: Los resultados del presente estudio indican que la mortalidad cardiovascular tiende a ser más sensible a los cambios en el consumo per cápita de bebidas de alto contenido alcohólico que a los cambios en el nivel de consumo total de alcohol en aquellos países donde el patrón de consumo imperante es beber hasta intoxicarse. Este estudio corrobora la idea de que consumir alcohol hasta la intoxicación es un factor de riesgo en la mortalidad cardiovascular de la población.


Palabras clave


consumo de alcohol; mortalidad cardiovascular; efecto de una bebida específica; análisis de series temporales

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Referencias


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.20882/adicciones.386

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